This chart illustrates a general trend in the Bay Area: more affordable market segments have continued to be very hot since spring, while more expensive segments have basically plateaued:
Thinking about the market, it seemed that lower-priced home sales (especially houses) were still quite hot and sales under $1 million were clearly decreasing in volume as prices rose in more affordable areas. And sales of higher priced homes were decreasing as that segment cooled off, which would suggest that sales between $1m and $2m […]
DOM-UC-FS_by-Prop-Type_Price-Segment Expired-to-Sold_Ratio_by-Prop-Type_Price-Segment UC-to-FS_Ratio_by-Prop-Type_Price-Segment
Looking at market statistics for Q1, this is what I’m seeing: houses under $2m: the market is as hot as ever; houses over $2m cooling a little; condos under $1.5m definitely cooling (probably most in D9 with competition from new projects); condos over $1.5m cooling down very significantly (especially in D9, and the general South […]
This chart gives an exceedingly clear illustration of the seasonality of home price appreciation over the past 4 years. Summer/autumn plateau in 2015? It’s happened to a large degree every year since 2012. We won’t really know where the market is headed next until we see what happens in early spring 2016. (Barring some large, […]
This S&P Case-Shiller Index is very interesting. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly […]
The following shows the annual, compound, median-sales-price appreciation rate for San Francisco houses, by neighborhood, since 1994. This calculation simply uses the 1994 median sales price and calculates appreciation through to the 2015 YTD median sales price. (Return on cash investment percentages are higher, since that calculation starts with a 20%-of-median-price downpayment.) The analysis is […]
The really big jumps in median 3-BR house prices over last year occurred in the mid-price neighborhoods like Bernal Heights, Glen Park and Miraloma Park. The most expensive neighborhoods, such as Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights don’t have enough 3-BR house sales to put on the chart.